Chicken Little
Remember that old childhood “Chicken Little” fable? As the story goes, Chicken Little, aka “Henny Penny”, is standing under an oak tree when an acorn falls and hits him on the head. He immediately concludes ‘the sky is falling’ and is compelled to warn all his friends of this looming catastrophe. Had he checked his facts, like picking up the acorn that bonked him, he likely would not have jumped to such a hasty deduction. Of course, his tale spread like wildfire among his friends, resulting in mass hysteria.
Likewise, with climate change. Unfortunately, some so-called experts of climate change, whether they be scientists, environmentalists, or politicians – newly elected congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez predicts doom in just 12 years – scare the populace with claims of pending disaster by bending facts to fit their narrative. One of the most frightening predictions is the rapid melting of glaciers and ice caps resulting in a rise in sea level that will inundate the worlds’ coastlines by tens of feet by the end of this century. Say goodbye to New York City and Miami! Is there reason to panic? Take Florida for example.
Florida Over Past 5 Million Years
The image (above) depicts the landmass of Florida during the three most recent geological periods. Present day Florida, also called the Holocene Period, is in grey. The red line is a snapshot of Florida 20,000 years ago at the end of the last glacial epoch of the Pleistocene Period; sea level had dropped nearly 400 feet due to ocean water tied up in massive glaciers. The white area pictures Florida five million years ago at the start of the Pliocene Period; the average global temperature was five degrees warmer than today, which produced sea levels much higher than today. By the middle of the Pliocene, nearly 100 percent of Florida was under water.
The truth is, Florida has been submerged 280 feet beneath the sea for most of its existence. Reason – the global temperature was too hot to allow any glaciers and polar ice caps to form. Earth has been without ice for most of its existence. But there have been occasions when the planet was nearly enveloped in ice; such events, sometimes persisting millions of years, were termed “slushball earths”. We are presently living in an ice age called the Pleistocene, which commenced 2.6 million years ago. The Pleistocene behaves much differently than the ancient slushballs due to its cyclic glacial-interglacial pulses (hot & cold).
So, what about today; what’s happening now? Answer: sea level is still steadily rising. In fact, it has risen nearly 400 feet, starting around 20,000 years ago at the end of the latest ice age (called the Wisconsin glacial epoch). How fast might it be rising? Based on IPCC (International Plant Protection Convention) calculations over the last 100-year cycle, it is rising at an average of 0.07 inches per year; at that rate, in 100 years sea level will have increased a whopping seven inches! (sarcasm intended) But, the rate this century is well below 0.07 inch per year. This fact doesn’t seem to line up with the story of imminent doom – some have predicted a 30-foot rise by 2100 - coming from academia and politicians.
Once called “global warming”, that term was recently modified due to too many instances of the opposite, global cooling. Now the politically correct term is “climate change”, which can mean just about anything. It should surprise no one that earth has experienced radical swings of climate over its long life. The issue for today is, how fast is earth’s ice currently melting, and is it a threat to our coastlines? Pause for a moment to conduct a little experiment. Fill one glass 2/3 full of water; then fill a second glass with water plus ice cubes to the same level as the first. Let the ice melt and compare the levels. No change. This is exactly what happens on a global scale. If all the ice presently tied up in icebergs and floating on the polar seas were to suddenly melt, there would still be almost no change in sea level. Only ice that melts over land, like glaciers, contributes to a rise in sea level.
Today, many glaciers are in retreat, a testimony to a warming trend; their melt-water is contributing to rising oceans, but at a very slow pace. Ninety percent of ice-over-land exists in Antarctica. If Antarctica were to entirely melt, as it has in geologic times past, the planet would have a very different appearance; oceans would rise 250 feet, drowning many coastlines. Here’s a bit of trivia: Did you know that Antarctica is earth’s driest continent? So, is Antarctica melting? The answer might surprise you.
The Antarctic Peninsula, a 750-mile-long strip of land and ice due south of South America, comprising about 2 percent of the continent’s land mass, has been melting. But the remaining 98 percent of Antarctica is experiencing a cooling trend with a slight increase in ice accumulation, not a decrease! So, why are so many environmentalists focusing on the 2 percent melting and not the 98 percent accreting? Because it doesn’t fit their climate narrative.
Confused yet? Perhaps a step-by-step reality check is in order.
- 20,000 years ago, the most recent ice age ended. Much of North America was buried in thousands of feet of ice. So much water was tied up in ice that oceans had receded nearly 400 feet; Florida was more than twice its present land mass.
- Over the next 10,000 years, global warming caused continental glaciers to recede and to begin refilling the oceans. Sea level rose an average of 35.4 inches per century.
- About 10,000 years ago earth underwent Younger Dryer Cooling for about 1300 years; I wrote about this in a recent blog. This event caused global temperatures to plummet, slowing down the rate of ice melt; from 10,000 years ago to 5,000 years ago sea level rise slowed to 22 inches per century.
- From 5,000 years ago to present, that number is a mere 1.56 inches per century. But, since 1790, after emerging from the 400 years of global cooling called the “Little Ice Age”, oceans have risen at a faster pace, seven inches per century.
Should seven inches per century be reason for worry? Many scientists don’t believe so. Here’s why. It is true, humans appear to be partially responsible for much of the increase in greenhouse gas and its predictable surge in global temperatures. But something strange is happening. Although the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, has risen to over 400 ppm since the Industrial Revolution (it was 280 ppm in 1900), the rate of sea level increase has been in a slight decline, on a path nearing six inches per century. As I wrote in the blog, “Ice Age Coming”, many scientists believe earth is already 2000 years overdue for its next ice age. Were it not for man’s contribution to climate change (which God for-planned), the planet might already be accumulating ice with a resultant drop in sea level. That’s the big picture!
So, you don’t have to entertain the Chicken Little scare rhetoric with its most radical “Green” initiatives, like eliminating methane-farting cows, or banning fossil fuels. If God didn’t want us to have an abundance of cows and fossil fuel, then why would he bother to create them? Instead, he requires us to be wise stewards of these resources. Regarding timing for the next ice age, that’s entirely in the hands of our Creator. Meanwhile, having a little warmer planet with stable shorelines can help make room for earth’s ever-increasing (7.3 billion and growing) inhabitants. A little higher carbon footprint would be a good start. To look at it from Heaven’s perspective, the more people earth can host, the greater potential to populate Heaven.
