Ice age coming soon, the answer is “when”, not “if”? As a young geologist in the 1960s, much of my research focused on evidence of recent glacial epochs during the last 2.5-million-year period, known as the Pleistocene. The buzzword in those days was “global cooling”; now it’s a complete reversal, “global warming”, or its more recent cousin, ‘climate change’. So, which is it? Confused? Answer: both. This is a hot, highly political topic, with people lining up on various sides of their positions. It’s an important topic, with outcomes that will have great impact on our planet, and especially humanity. Poor planning could result in loss of human life in the billions! Let’s take a closer look.
All the scientific data (the facts) tells us the next ice age is inevitable, in fact, it is overdue. Even though in 2018 we live in a warm interglacial period, there have been four severe cold-temperature cycles in just the last 4500 years. One of the more impactful ones occurred between AD 1300 and AD 1850; it was so cold for so long they named it the “Little Ice Age”. Here are just a few examples of its impact on civilization:
· The Great Famine in Europe from 1315 to 1320 – millions starved to death
· Bubonic Plague of mid-14th century – over 70 million perished! – weak human immune systems from malnutrition combined with a flourishing rat population (bad formula)
· French Revolution of 1789 – starving peasants revolted
· 1816 “Year without a Summer” – ‘great migration’ from New England to mid-west; German farmers killed starving horses, giving rise to Karl von Sauerbronn’s invention of the bicycle.
But the Little Ice Age pales in comparison to a normal, major, 100,000 year-long Pleistocene glacial cycle: 90,000 years of frigid, followed by 10,000 years of warm. Today, the latest glacial epoch, named the ‘Wisconsin’, ended 12,000 years ago; we are now 2000 years overdue for the next ice age. This could be a huge problem for our future!
These days all the climate talk seems to focus around the sharp rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases caused by mankind, specifically, carbon dioxide (CO2). Carbon dioxide, the main culprit, has passed the 400-ppm threshold (oh my!), carrying the supposed threat of drowning coastal cities, extinction of polar bears, droughts and forest fires, super-hurricanes, famine and death. But, little is spoken of the benefits of rising CO2: the ability to feed growing populations (CO2 is plant food); shrinking deserts / increasing farmland; reduced forest fires, tornados and hurricanes; doubling polar bear population, and, most importantly, delaying the onset of the next ice age. By the way, doomsayers in 1978 were predicting a five-foot rise in the ocean by 2018; sea level has actually risen about five inches.
Much more could be said about this subject; it’s complex and often driven by money, politics, and fear. Let’s try hard not to lose sight of the facts – all of them.
